The National Propane Gas Association (NPGA) Supply & Logistics Meeting met last week to discuss supply as we head into the 2023-2024 heating season.
A summary of the highlights from the meeting are below:
Inventories: There are high inventory levels across all regions due to strong production growth. The Gulf Coast is the exception, as it experiences record-setting export activities.
Prices: Propane prices remain low due to high inventories due to production growth exceeding demand.
Winter Outlook: Average winter is expected, potentially with a late El Nino boost in February demand.
Production: There is strong growth from the Permian Basin.
Terminal Capacity: Gulf Coast terminals nearing capacity, limiting further export growth until mid-2025.
Frac Propane Data: EIA to start reporting fractionated propane inventories at the PADD level by the end of December.
Rail Update: The rail industry is concerned with a rail safety bill in the U.S. Senate that could slow supply chains and increase costs. The rail industry hopes to collaborate with the propane industry on the federal legislation moving forward.
Hours of Service Update: NPGA is working to get a petition for reconsideration for FMCSA's hours of service rules. They are also working to create a database of information to support requests for waivers. Members are encouraged to use the NPGA plan app and provide data on wait times at supply points this winter.
Supply Infrastructure Map Update: The map is being updated, and all revisions should be submitted to Twana Aiken by January 26, 2024.